By a head

The Colombian presidential election has reached its decisive second round, with the country's political landscape sharply divided between the far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and the leftist contender Iván Cepeda. Just three days before the vote on June 21, polls indicate a tight race, with de la Espriella currently leading slightly ahead of Cepeda. According to a survey published by CB Global Data on June 17, de la Espriella holds 50.1% of voter intentions, while Cepeda trails with 45.1%. The remaining 3.9% of respondents indicated they would cast blank or null votes, and 0.9% remain undecided. Both candidates face similar levels of rejection, with 45.7% rejecting Cepeda and 44.3% rejecting de la Espriella.

This poll was conducted online between June 13 and 17, based on 1,710 interviews, with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. Compared to a previous survey carried out between June 1 and 4, both candidates have seen positive shifts in their support, primarily driven by voters who were previously undecided—accounting for 3.5% in the earlier poll. These figures suggest a dynamic and fluid electoral environment where the final days of campaigning could significantly influence the outcome.

Abelardo de la Espriella, a 47-year-old millionaire lawyer, has garnered significant attention due to his controversial background. He has been supported by former U.S. President Donald Trump and is known by the nickname "El Tigre." His political career has been marked by representing paramilitary groups, drug traffickers, corrupt politicians, and football stars. This history has drawn criticism, but he has gained traction among voters frustrated with the current administration led by President Gustavo Petro, the first leftist president in Colombia’s history.

On the other hand, Iván Cepeda, a 63-year-old senator, represents the left and enjoys the backing of Petro. As a staunch defender of human rights, Cepeda plays a crucial role in the peace negotiations that Petro attempted to pursue with armed groups that remained active after the 2016 agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). His platform emphasizes maintaining strong state investment in social programs and continuing dialogue with armed factions.

In the first round held on May 31, de la Espriella secured 43.7% of the votes, compared to Cepeda’s 40.9%, indicating a clear shift in voter sentiment toward the far-right candidate. However, the close polling numbers in the second round suggest that the electorate remains deeply divided, with high levels of polarization and dissatisfaction with the current government.

The legal battle over de la Espriella’s campaign also adds another layer of complexity to the election. On June 12, Colombia’s Supreme Court suspended a lower court’s decision that had prohibited de la Espriella from using national symbols and military salutes during his campaign. This suspension came amid ongoing legal challenges regarding the use of the national flag, military insignias, and references to security agencies in his political rallies. De la Espriella had already expressed defiance against these judicial restrictions, stating that opponents sought to ban all aspects of his campaign.

A judge in Bogotá recently revoked another restriction preventing de la Espriella from using the national football team jersey, citing a lack of clarity in the initial ruling, which created uncertainty in the legal framework. Critics argue that de la Espriella is appropriating symbols associated with national identity, drawing comparisons to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s use of similar tactics.

The broader context of this election is shaped by widespread discontent with the current administration. A new survey by AtlasIntel, in partnership with the magazine *Semana*, released on June 13, showed that de la Espriella leads with 52.6% of voter preferences, surpassing Cepeda’s 44.8%. The survey also highlighted a significant disapproval rating for President Petro, with 55.2% of Colombians expressing dissatisfaction with his governance. This discontent is more pronounced among men and individuals aged 45 to 59 years, particularly in the central region of the country.

Despite the high level of polarization, the survey revealed that de la Espriella is favored in areas related to order and infrastructure, whereas Cepeda performs better on social and environmental issues. The research, based on 3,681 interviews conducted between June 5 and 10, carries a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.

As the election approaches, the outcome appears increasingly uncertain. With both candidates facing high levels of rejection and a highly polarized electorate, the result will likely hinge on last-minute shifts in public opinion. The close contest mirrors similar trends observed in other Latin American countries, where narrow margins of victory reflect heightened political tensions and deepening societal divisions. The final results will provide insight into the trajectory of Colombian politics under these conditions of intense polarization and public frustration.