As elections near, South Sudan risks new atrocity crimes, warns rights probe

South Sudan faces mounting risks of new atrocity crimes as the nation prepares for its first national elections since gaining independence in 2011, according to a United Nations human rights commission. The warning comes amid escalating violence in multiple regions and a stalled implementation of a critical peace agreement. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan highlighted that the convergence of multiple risk factors threatens to lead to large-scale atrocities similar to those witnessed during the 2013–2018 civil war. The commission identified 407 ceasefire violations recorded between August 2025 and January 2026, signaling a resurgence of armed conflict in areas such as Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Unity states. Clashes and civilian casualties have also been reported in Western and Central Equatoria states. These developments coincide with growing tensions around the upcoming election process, which the commission warned could exacerbate existing conflicts if not carefully managed. The commission emphasized that South Sudan is at one of its most perilous moments, fifteen years after independence. It expressed concern that rushing toward elections without necessary safeguards could deepen current hostilities and increase the likelihood of atrocity crimes, including genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and ethnic cleansing. This warning follows the 2018 signing of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), which aimed to bring lasting peace to the region. However, nearly half of the agreement's key provisions remain unfulfilled, notably the integration of the country's security forces into a unified structure. The commission described the current situation as worsening across political, security, humanitarian, and human rights dimensions. Political divisions have returned, and conflict-related abuses continue to plague the population. The panel, composed of three independent experts, Yasmin Sooka, Barney Afako, and Carlos Castresana Fernández, has been operating under the UN Human Rights Council since 2016. Their role is to monitor and report on the human rights situation in South Sudan, drawing attention to the gravity of the crisis faced by the country's citizens. According to the commission, several indicators outlined in the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes are evident in South Sudan. These include renewed armed conflict, weakened institutions, entrenched impunity, exclusionary governance, corruption, reduced civic engagement, and incendiary rhetoric. Additionally, mechanisms designed to counter these threats, such as ceasefire monitoring, independent judicial systems, and inclusive political discussions, are either diminished or non-existent. The commission further noted that inclusive politics are being sidelined in Juba, the capital. Civic freedoms and constitutional protections have eroded, while accountability structures remain largely ineffective. A significant portion of the population continues to be excluded from meaningful political involvement. Without a return to genuine and inclusive dialogue, the electoral process risks intensifying existing divisions instead of offering a peaceful resolution to them. Commission chair Yasmin Sooka underscored that South Sudanese citizens, who have waited 15 years to cast their first votes, deserve the opportunity to elect their leaders through free, fair, and peaceful elections. She cautioned against allowing the election process to become another arena for violence. Commissioner Barney Afako echoed this sentiment, stressing that the return of firearms to the political landscape poses a serious threat to stability and peace.