ANC at 18%: Former DA man Gareth van Onselen's hidden hand behind the polls

A recent poll showing the African National Congress (ANC) at 18% support in Johannesburg has sparked intense scrutiny over the research firm behind the data. Commissioned by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) and conducted by Victory Research, the survey highlights shifting political dynamics ahead of the November local government elections. According to the findings, the Democratic Alliance (DA) holds 42% support in the city, followed by the MK Party and ActionSA, both of which record double-digit backing. Nationally, the ANC’s support stands at 34%, down from approximately 40% in earlier surveys, while the DA is at 27%, the MK Party at 15%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 7%. The poll, which surveyed 504 Johannesburg residents between July 8 and 31, carries a 4.4% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. It assumes a 53% voter turnout, a factor that has fueled discussions about the accuracy of the results. In eThekwini, the ANC has slipped to third place behind the MK Party and DA, whereas Tshwane remains its strongest metropolitan area, with support slightly above 30%, though still lower than the DA’s 40% share. Gareth van Onselen, the chief executive of Victory Research, confirmed that the SRF commissioned the survey and that the foundation is a long-standing client of his firm. This revelation has reignited debates about the independence of Victory Research, particularly given its historical ties to the DA. Johan van der Berg, the founder and managing partner of Victory Research, has previously held key roles within the DA, serving as its head of research. During the 2024 general elections, these connections drew criticism, notably from ActionSA’s national chairperson, Michael Beaumont, who called the arrangement a “severe conflict of interest.” Despite these concerns, the SRF’s final tracking poll before the 2024 elections proved accurate, predicting ANC support at 42.2%, DA at 21.6%, MK Party at 12.4%, and the EFF at 10.8%. Actual results aligned closely with these projections, with the ANC securing 40.2%, the DA 21.8%, the MK Party 14.6%, and the EFF 9.5%. Van Onselen, who has previously worked for the DA, has dismissed past affiliations as irrelevant to the current study. He emphasized that private clients of Victory Research do not disclose their identities without consent, stating, “No private company will reveal its private clients unless its private clients approve.” The SRF itself was established by Frans Cronje, a former chief executive of the South African Institute of Race Relations. Cronje’s political background adds another layer to the ongoing discourse surrounding the poll’s credibility. Analysts remain divided on how much weight to assign to the political histories of those involved. Professor Theo Neethling, a political scientist, suggested that the primary focus should be on the poll’s methodological rigor, including its sampling techniques, weighting procedures, and assumptions about voter turnout. As the November elections approach, the implications of this poll continue to shape political narratives. With the ANC facing a notable decline in support, especially in Johannesburg, the findings underscore the evolving landscape of South African politics. Meanwhile, the controversy surrounding the poll’s commissioning and the broader question of political influence in research remain unresolved, leaving room for further analysis and debate.