Latin America: Trump's interventions affect the region and raise the alarm for elections in Brazil

In late May and early June of 2026, a wave of mass protests erupted across Bolivia, led by social movements, labor unions, and indigenous groups. These demonstrations were primarily directed against the government of President Rodrigo Paz Pereira, whose administration had implemented a series of economic reforms perceived as favoring liberal market policies. The measures included austerity cuts, privatizations, and reduced subsidies on fuel, which have exacerbated existing economic hardships. Protesters demanded an end to these policies, calling for better quality fuels, higher wages, and the reversal of rural land laws deemed harmful to small farmers. The pressure from the streets forced the government to retreat on several fronts, including the repeal of a controversial law affecting small rural property owners.

Amidst this domestic unrest, a statement from abroad drew significant attention. From thousands of miles away, the United States under President Donald Trump issued a clear message of support for the Bolivian government. In a public address, Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled the protesters as "criminals and drug traffickers" and warned that the U.S. would not allow the government of Paz Pereira to be overthrown. This rhetoric suggested that the United States might even intervene directly in the situation, should the need arise. Such statements align with a broader pattern of interventionist behavior by the Trump administration in Latin American affairs, which has become increasingly pronounced since his return to power in January 2025.

Experts warn that this level of foreign involvement raises serious concerns for Brazil, which is set to hold its presidential elections later in the year. The potential alignment of several South American countries with the Trump administration could create a new geopolitical dynamic in the region. For instance, the election of Abelardo de La Espriella, a far-right candidate in Colombia, could position the country alongside Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Paraguay as allies of the U.S. government. This shift could significantly influence regional politics and international relations.

The Brazilian electoral landscape is particularly noteworthy due to its significance as the largest economy in Latin America. According to a recent survey by Datafolha, released on June 20, 65 percent of voters expressed indifference toward whether former U.S. president Donald Trump supports any particular candidate in the upcoming election. However, the implications of such a scenario remain profound. One of the leading candidates, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the former president Jair Bolsonaro who is currently imprisoned for alleged coup plotting, has openly aligned himself with Trump's interests in the continent. His campaign promises include pardoning his father and fully endorsing Trump’s policies in Latin America, much like his predecessor did.

Flávio Bolsonaro made a personal visit to Washington in late May, where he met with Trump and posed for photographs together. Analysts have interpreted this gesture in multiple ways—some see it as a strategic move to bolster the far-right narrative, while others view it as a desperate attempt to regain momentum amid declining poll numbers and ongoing legal troubles involving former banker Daniel Vorcaro. Regardless of interpretation, one thing remains evident: the October elections in Brazil are drawing increasing scrutiny from the United States.

Lucas Leite, a professor of International Relations at FAAP and researcher at INCT/INEU, highlights the growing influence of the U.S. in shaping regional dynamics. He notes that the presence of a conservative government in Washington provides advantages to figures like Flávio Bolsonaro, who align closely with Trump’s vision for Latin America. Leite points out that a network of conservative leaders across the continent—from El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele to Argentina’s Javier Milei and Chile’s José Antonio Kast—has already formed a bloc sympathetic to U.S. interests. This coalition spans several countries and represents a substantial portion of South America.

As the political climate continues to evolve, the role of external actors in shaping internal affairs becomes ever more critical. With Brazil standing at the crossroads of regional influence and global diplomacy, the coming months will likely reveal how deeply intertwined the fates of nations in Latin America are with the policies emanating from Washington. The trajectory of the Brazilian elections, therefore, holds not just national but also continental significance, as it could either reinforce or challenge the emerging alliances forged under the Trump administration.