Almost 145,000 Australians will lose support for autism under NDIS reforms, documents reveal

Almost 145,000 Australians with autism will lose access to support under the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) as part of government reforms aimed at reducing the scheme's financial burden, according to newly disclosed internal documents. The changes, which are expected to take effect by the end of the decade, involve removing individuals deemed to have less severe disabilities from the program, shifting resources toward those with more complex and significant needs. The reforms, outlined in health department documents obtained by Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws, indicate that nearly 241,000 NDIS participants will be excluded from the scheme by June 2031. Of these, approximately 144,600—about 60%, will have autism or developmental delays listed as their primary disability. A large portion of those affected will be young people, with 64% of the group, or around 154,240 individuals, aged 18 or younger. This includes a significant number of children under 14, who currently make up the majority of autistic participants accessing the NDIS. The Australian government, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, claims the reforms are essential to stabilize the NDIS, which is projected to grow from a $52 billion annual cost to over $117 billion per year without intervention. The current expansion rate of the scheme has dropped slightly, from a peak of 23% in 2021-22 to just below 2% over the next four years. However, officials argue that the program remains unsustainable unless its scope is narrowed. Minister for Disability Services Mark Butler has emphasized that the NDIS should serve only those with “significant and permanent disability.” He described the scheme as “struggling” due to rapid growth, noting that it is both costly for taxpayers and disruptive to other parts of the healthcare system. Despite these concerns, the government has moved forward with the plan, expecting it to pass in parliament once sessions resume. To mitigate the impact of these changes, the government has announced the launch of the Thriving Kids program, a joint initiative with state governments. Starting in October, this program will provide support for children under nine with mild developmental delays and autism who are transitioning off the NDIS. It represents one of several new state-led disability support initiatives aimed at diverting individuals away from the NDIS. Critics, including advocacy groups and members of parliament, have raised alarms about the potential consequences of the reforms. A recent report by a parliamentary human rights committee warned that the changes could be retrogressive and infringe upon the rights of vulnerable populations. The report highlighted the risk of leaving many individuals without adequate support, particularly those who rely heavily on the NDIS for daily living assistance. Internal government documentation acknowledges that while some measures may limit certain rights, they are considered reasonable and necessary to ensure the sustainability of the NDIS. The documents stress that the goal is to prioritize support for those with the most complex needs, rather than spreading limited resources across a broader population. As the reforms progress, the government continues to assert that the changes are vital for the long-term stability of the NDIS. Meanwhile, advocates and families of those affected await further clarification on alternative support options, especially for teenagers and young adults whose futures may be significantly impacted by the policy shift.