Alarm on the Croatian real estate market: While Europe is growing, housing sales are falling

Alarm bells are ringing in Croatia’s real estate market as data from Eurostat reveal a sharp contrast with trends across much of Europe. While countries such as Slovenia saw a near 30 percent increase in property sales in 2025, Croatia recorded a decline of 4.1 percent. The disparity highlights a growing divergence in housing markets across the continent, with some nations experiencing robust growth while others face stagnation or contraction. The European real estate landscape has shown varied dynamics over the past year. According to figures released by Eurostat, Slovenia led the charge with a 29.9 percent rise in property transactions, followed by Lithuania (22.8 percent), Austria (21.4 percent), and Belgium (20.2 percent). Most European countries witnessed double-digit increases in property sales, though France marked one of the most notable reversals, shifting from a decline in 2024 to a rise in 2025. Spain maintained positive growth in both years, indicating resilient demand despite broader economic challenges. Croatia stands apart from this general trend, joining Bulgaria and Poland in recording negative performance. Bulgaria saw a 2.5 percent drop in property sales, while Poland experienced a smaller decline of 1.1 percent. In Croatia, the number of homes and apartments sold in 2025 fell to 17,747, significantly lower than the over one million units sold in France during the same period. This contrast underscores the divergent paths being taken by different European economies. Mikk Kalmet, a real estate advisor with Global Property Guide, noted that several factors influence property transactions, including mortgage accessibility, interest rates, household incomes, employment levels, consumer confidence, and the availability of residential space. He emphasized that while many European countries have seen improvements in these areas, Croatia continues to struggle with domestic conditions that affect its real estate market. Rising rental prices have played a role in shaping the Croatian market. Over the course of just one year, rent costs surged by more than 39 percent, far exceeding the 14.3 percent increase in property prices. This rapid inflation in rental costs has likely impacted affordability and purchasing power, contributing to the overall decline in property sales. Despite the challenges, Kalmet pointed out that smaller markets such as Slovenia, Lithuania, Belgium, and Hungary have experienced particularly strong growth. However, he cautioned that percentage changes can appear larger on smaller markets, which may skew perceptions of overall performance. Additionally, high construction costs and limited building activity continue to constrain the supply of new homes and apartments, further affecting market dynamics. In France, the situation contrasts sharply with Croatia's. Despite a modest 0.1 percent increase in house prices, the country recorded over a million property transactions in 2025. This demonstrates how varying economic conditions and policy environments can lead to vastly different outcomes in real estate markets across Europe. Croatia’s unique position in this context reflects ongoing domestic issues that persist even amid broader European recovery. As the country grapples with rising living costs and constrained housing supply, the challenge lies in addressing these structural issues to align its real estate market with the rest of the continent.