AI Applications for Oil and Gas Companies Worsen Climate Pollution

Oil and gas companies using artificial intelligence to locate and extract fossil fuels are significantly increasing global emissions, according to a new study led by two former Microsoft employees. The research, published in Nature, argues that the environmental impact of AI-driven fossil fuel expansion outweighs the emissions generated by the data centers that power the technology. Will and Holly Alpine, co-founders of the Enabled Emissions Campaign, conducted the study after spending years developing AI platforms. Their analysis suggests that AI tools used by oil and gas firms have accelerated production, reducing costs and improving profitability. This has led to an increase in fossil fuel output that would not have occurred under normal conditions. As a result, the study estimates that AI applications in the sector could add between 0.47 and 1.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide annually, representing 1.2 to 4.8 percent of global energy-related emissions in 2024. These figures surpass the International Energy Agency's previous estimates of data center emissions by up to 13 times. To arrive at these conclusions, the Alpines employed an economic simulation model that examines how economies respond to technological advancements. They evaluated the impact of AI on both the fossil fuel and renewable energy sectors, converting these effects into “productivity shocks.” By considering varying levels of AI adoption, from minimal to widespread, they aligned their findings with the International Energy Agency’s 2035 projections. This method allowed them to quantify the net effect of AI on emissions across different scenarios. Will Alpine, who previously worked on AI infrastructure, emphasized that the tools he helped build have had a dual impact. While AI can enhance renewable energy systems, optimize grid performance, and improve operational efficiency, it has simultaneously bolstered the fossil fuel industry. He described this as an “asymmetric” effect, where AI functions as an economic lever that strengthens the position of fossil fuels in the market. Holly Alpine pointed out that many discussions around AI’s climate impact focus narrowly on the trade-off between data center energy use and potential emission reductions elsewhere, such as improved flight paths or optimized urban traffic management. However, she argued that this framing overlooks the broader consequences of AI-enabled fossil fuel extraction. Another 2025 study, published in the same journal by researchers from the Grantham Research Institute and Systemiq, noted that while AI contributes to emissions through data center operations, it also holds promise for reducing emissions in key sectors like food, power, and mobility. Together, these industries account for nearly half of global greenhouse gas emissions. The study concluded that AI could play a pivotal role in accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels and transforming interconnected systems such as energy, transport, and land use. Despite these concerns, some tech giants have taken steps to mitigate AI’s environmental footprint. Google, for instance, used its DeepMind AI system to cut energy usage in data centers by 40 percent. Similarly, Microsoft has committed to sourcing all its electricity from renewable sources, reporting in 2025 that it achieved 100 percent renewable energy usage globally. A Microsoft spokesperson stated that the company continues to refine its approach as AI evolves, emphasizing its commitment to becoming carbon negative, water positive, and waste free. The spokesperson added that technology should support industry-wide decarbonization efforts while balancing current energy demands with long-term sustainability goals.