The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has revised its projections for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing the strengthening of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific as a key influencing factor. According to the latest assessment, there is a 75 percent chance that the season will see below-normal hurricane activity. This update comes after El Niño began developing in June and continues to gain strength, making it one of the primary factors considered in forecasting weather patterns. Experts predict that between seven and 13 named storms could form during the season, with two to six of these potentially reaching hurricane status. Among those hurricanes, up to two might reach Category 3 or higher, classified as major hurricanes. The presence of a strong El Niño alters atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic, particularly increasing wind shear, a phenomenon that can hinder the organization and intensification of tropical systems. The NOAA suggests this current El Niño episode may rank among the strongest recorded since 1950. Specialists have warned that a powerful event could lead to different impacts compared to more moderate ones, adding uncertainty to the forecasts. If the influence of El Niño proves weaker than anticipated or if a prolonged storm similar to Hurricane Betsy in 1965 emerges, the level of activity could fall within the upper range of the estimated figures. So far, two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, have formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Arthur developed off the coast of Texas in June and brought record rainfall to parts of Louisiana, along with tornadoes along the Gulf Coast. Bertha formed south of Florida’s Panhandle before making landfall in Louisiana's Saint Bernard Parish. These storms accounted for approximately 3 percent of the median accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) typically observed in a full season. Despite the generally lower forecast for hurricane activity in the open Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical regions remain at risk for storm formation. During periods dominated by El Niño, conditions in the open Atlantic may become less favorable for cyclone development. However, the Gulf of Mexico and surrounding areas can maintain conditions conducive to system formation. These storms often develop closer to shore, reducing the time available for preparation and response. Meteorologists emphasize the importance of preparedness, even for storms that may not escalate into hurricanes. Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service (NWS) under NOAA, highlighted the need for vigilance against any potential storm affecting local areas. Meanwhile, the unprecedented warming of Pacific waters has raised concerns about the potential impact of a "Super El Niño." The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an atmospheric disturbance moving eastward over the equatorial ocean, has accelerated the warming process. In South America, especially in Argentina, the effects of a strong El Niño could significantly alter precipitation and temperature patterns. According to NOAA, if the current trend continues, ocean temperatures could rise beyond 2 degrees Celsius, increasing the likelihood of a historically significant event. The agency has raised its measurement scale to 8 degrees Celsius in anticipation of a very strong Super El Niño. Michelle L’Heureux, a senior meteorologist specializing in ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) at NOAA, explained that intense El Niño events often occur when trade winds weaken, allowing warmer water to spread across the ocean surface. However, the intensity of the phenomenon depends on dynamic factors such as low-level winds. She noted that unexpected changes in wind patterns could either pause or reverse the growth of El Niño, though sustained atmospheric coupling would release substantial heat, altering global climate for extended periods. International monitoring centers continue to track thermal anomalies closely. While predicting the exact magnitude of the event remains complex due to short-term atmospheric interactions, the persistence of warm ocean temperatures could have long-lasting effects on regional climates. In Argentina, the impact of a Super El Niño could vary by region. The Pampas and coastal areas may experience increased humidity and rainfall due to shifts in the subtropical jet stream. Central and western regions, including Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and the Cuyo area, could face more frequent severe thunderstorms accompanied by hail and strong winds. Meanwhile, the Patagonian region might encounter drier conditions and higher-than-average temperatures, raising the risk of wildfires during the summer months.
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