Abdul El-Sayed Is Winning the Polls Despite Democratic Backlash

Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat, continues to hold a narrow lead over Republican challenger Mike Rogers in the latest polls, despite facing internal skepticism from parts of his own party. A new survey by the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University shows El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by five points among likely voters, with 50 percent planning to support him compared to 45 percent for Rogers. The poll, conducted between August 10 and 20, surveyed 779 likely voters and adds to a series of recent surveys showing El-Sayed maintaining a slight edge in the race. The Senate race in Michigan is shaping up to be one of the most fiercely contested contests in the 2026 midterm elections. With current Democratic Senator Gary Peters set to retire after his term ends, the seat becomes a critical battleground in a state that narrowly supported Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Control of the Senate will hinge heavily on races in states like Michigan, where both parties are vying for influence. El-Sayed, a progressive public health official, secured the Democratic nomination after defeating Representative Haley Stevens in a contentious primary. His campaign has drawn criticism from some establishment Democrats, who worry his progressive stances, particularly on issues such as Israel and his association with streamer Hasan Piker, could alienate moderate and independent voters. Despite this, nearly all post-primary polls indicate El-Sayed holds a lead over Rogers, though the margins remain within the margin of error. Other recent polls corroborate the trend. An EPIC-MRA survey conducted August 22–28 found El-Sayed leading Rogers by four points, 47 percent to 43 percent, among 600 likely voters. Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. showed El-Sayed ahead by seven points, 46 percent to 39 percent, in its August 11–17 survey of 800 likely voters. Meanwhile, the AARP poll, taken August 9–11, gave El-Sayed a one-point advantage, 48 percent to 47 percent, among 877 likely voters. Additional data from TIPP Insights and GBAO further reinforced El-Sayed’s lead, although results varied slightly depending on the sample size and methodology used. Despite these findings, not all Democrats are fully aligned with El-Sayed’s candidacy. Some have remained silent on whether they support him, while others have chosen to endorse Rogers instead. Former Senator Gary Peters, who initially backed Stevens in the primary, later urged the party to unify behind El-Sayed. This division highlights the tension within the Democratic Party as it seeks to balance progressive ideals with broader appeal in a swing state. Political analysts suggest turnout will play a decisive role in determining the outcome. Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, a professor of political science at Wayne State University, noted that the motivation of each party’s base could tip the scales. She referenced the potential for a "blue wave," similar to the one that saw Democrats gain control of the House in 2018, but cautioned that the current climate might not produce the same result. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding voter behavior. Republicans, meanwhile, see an opportunity to flip the seat, which would complicate Democrats' efforts to maintain a Senate majority. The stakes are high, with national observers watching closely as the race unfolds. While El-Sayed has made clear he will not campaign with Hasan Piker during the general election, the issue remains a point of contention for some critics. As the campaign enters its final stretch, both candidates are expected to ramp up their outreach efforts. El-Sayed’s ability to consolidate support from across the Democratic spectrum, and to avoid further fracturing the party, will be crucial. Rogers, backed by former President Trump, aims to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the Biden administration and the perceived risks of El-Sayed’s progressive agenda. The coming weeks will test how effectively each can mobilize their respective bases and secure the votes needed to win in November.