Are Spanish buildings prepared for a big earthquake?

Spain’s buildings are not prepared for a major earthquake, according to experts who warn that the country's infrastructure lacks sufficient resilience against seismic activity. Recent tremors in Venezuela, Colombia, and Granada have reignited concerns over the safety of Spanish structures, particularly in regions with high seismic risk such as Andalusia, Murcia, and the Valencia Community. While Spain has the technical capacity to build earthquake-resistant structures, many older residential blocks were constructed before modern seismic design standards existed. This raises serious questions about whether the nation is truly ready for a large-scale earthquake. Experts agree that the next major earthquake in Spain is inevitable, though its timing remains uncertain. Specialists such as Juan Vicente Cantavella, director of the National Seismic Network, acknowledge that while the exact date cannot be predicted, the likelihood of a significant quake is growing. The last major earthquake in Spain was the 1884 Arenas del Rey disaster in Granada, which caused hundreds of deaths and widespread destruction. Since then, there has been a long period of relative calm, leading some to argue that this quietness may be misleading. Belén Benito, a professor at the Polytechnic University of Madrid specializing in seismic risks, warns that the lack of recent major quakes has led to a loss of awareness among both authorities and citizens. She calls the current situation a "time of discount," suggesting that the absence of disasters has created a false sense of security. Similarly, Patricio Venegas Aravena, an earthquake specialist from the University of Loyola Andalucía, argues that Spain is "very poorly prepared." Drawing from his experience in Chile, he emphasizes that the country must wake up to the reality of seismic threats. Historically, Spain has experienced several devastating earthquakes. The 1522 earthquake in Almería destroyed much of the city and surrounding areas, while the 1829 earthquake in Torrevieja devastated parts of Alicante. The 1755 Lisbon earthquake, although centered in Portugal, had effects felt throughout Europe and generated a massive tsunami. These historical events underscore the potential devastation of future quakes, especially in densely populated urban centers. Geologists caution that the concept of a "return period", the estimated time between major earthquakes, is not a reliable indicator. Cantavella notes that while historical records span around 1,000 years, return periods of 500 years make predictions unreliable. Méndez Chazarra adds that relying on such estimates can give people a false sense of security, making them believe that certain areas are temporarily safe. Instead, experts stress the importance of continuous monitoring and proactive measures. Pablo Silva, a geomorphology and geological hazards professor at the University of Salamanca, highlights the ongoing tectonic movement in the Betic region, where Africa and Eurasia converge at a rate of 2–4 millimeters per year. Over decades, this accumulation of strain could lead to a significant release of energy in the form of a powerful earthquake. He explains that the longer the interval between quakes, the more deformation builds up, increasing the potential magnitude of future events. As the scientific community continues to emphasize the urgency of preparing for the next major earthquake, the challenge lies in raising public awareness and ensuring that building codes are strictly enforced. With the possibility of another catastrophic event looming, Spain faces a critical moment in its efforts to safeguard its population and infrastructure against seismic threats.