A discarded SpaceX rocket is on a high-speed collision course with the moon

A discarded SpaceX rocket is on a high-speed collision course with the moon, set to strike the lunar surface on Wednesday. The incident involves the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket launched on January 15, 2025, carrying two private lunar landers from Firefly Aerospace and ispace. The rocket’s upper stage, which has been drifting since launch, is predicted to impact the moon at a speed of approximately 5,400 mph (8,700 kph), seven times the speed of sound. The collision is expected to occur near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western limb, making it visible to observers in the eastern United States, Canada, and parts of South America. The trajectory of the rocket, which was never intended to collide with the moon, highlights the challenges of managing space debris as commercial lunar missions increase. Experts suggest that if the upper stage had been maneuvered into a solar orbit instead of being left uncontrolled, the impact could have been avoided. This marks the second known instance of a dead rocket crashing into the moon, following a similar event involving a Chinese rocket segment in 2022, which created two craters on the lunar far side. The impending impact carries an estimated energy equivalent to three tons of TNT, though the resulting flash will likely be too faint to observe with the naked eye. However, the ejected material from the collision is expected to form a visible plume that can be tracked by telescopes for tens of minutes. Scientists anticipate a crater measuring roughly 90 feet (27 meters) in diameter and 16 feet (5 meters) deep, which would be too small to see from Earth but detectable by spacecraft. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter are scheduled to capture images of the impact site both before and after the collision. Danuri, which will pass within a mile or two (a few kilometers) of the SpaceX rocket just two minutes prior to impact, will offer valuable data on the effects of such collisions. Observers, including amateur astronomers, are encouraged to monitor the event, as the low lunar gravity and lack of atmospheric winds mean the debris will remain suspended for an extended period. The rocket, measuring about 40 feet (12 meters) long and weighing approximately 10,000 pounds (4,500 kilograms), successfully delivered the two landers to the moon. One of them, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost, achieved the first fully successful lunar landing by a private spacecraft. The other, ispace’s lander, encountered difficulties and did not make a safe touchdown. As the moon becomes a focal point for international exploration, with both the United States and China aiming to establish sustained presence on its surface, the importance of debris management grows. The upcoming collision underscores the need for improved tracking systems and traffic control protocols to ensure the safety of future robotic and crewed missions. In the past, NASA conducted controlled impacts during the Apollo era and in 2009 with the LCROSS mission to study lunar ice deposits. These efforts aim to enhance understanding of the moon’s composition and environment. Experts emphasize that while the current impact poses no immediate danger, it serves as a reminder of the increasing risks associated with uncontrolled space objects. As commercial and governmental entities continue to expand their lunar operations, the ability to predict and mitigate potential hazards will become increasingly critical. The upcoming event offers a unique opportunity for researchers to study the consequences of such collisions and refine strategies for planetary protection.