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A growing humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Sudan, with reports indicating that the situation in the besieged city of El Obeid mirrors the harrowing experiences seen in El Fasher, where the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) carried out severe atrocities. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, has issued a dire warning that another catastrophe may be imminent unless immediate action is taken. The U.N. Human Rights Council convened an emergency session last week due to escalating tensions between the Sudanese army and the RSF, which is backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The U.N. fact-finding missions have documented numerous violations, including summary executions, abductions, torture, and sexual violence in the region of Kordofan. According to Save the Children, over 11,000 individuals, including more than 5,500 children, have been displaced from El Obeid within the past two weeks alone. These figures highlight the severity of the situation and the urgent need for intervention.

In the United Kingdom, Nathaniel Raymond of the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health testified to the U.K. Parliament regarding the potential for a genocidal massacre by the RSF in El Fasher. He emphasized the British government's unique position to prevent such a disaster but expressed frustration over its failure to act due to economic interests and diplomatic relations with the UAE, which is accused of supporting the RSF. Raymond's testimony underscores the complex interplay of politics and ethics in addressing international crises.

An investigative report by Lighthouse Reports, Evident, Sudan War Monitor, and Der Spiegel reveals the extent of the UAE's support for the RSF through a clandestine network of military training camps in Libya. Journalist Julia Steers, who produced the documentary "Inside the Secret Network Fueling Sudan’s War," highlights the significance of these camps. She notes that analysts have observed a surge in weapon smuggling at the Libya-Sudan border, reaching up to three times pre-war levels. Steers describes her experience visiting a location near the border where she encountered an RSF training camp, despite local authorities' attempts to keep these operations hidden.

The report indicates that equipment and personnel from these training camps have played crucial roles in significant RSF battles in Sudan. Collaborating with the Libyan National Army (LNA), the RSF has established training grounds and logistical hubs in the desert regions of Libya. Steers mentions that RSF soldiers frequently post updates from Libya on social media, suggesting that the operations are not entirely covert. This information raises questions about the transparency of military activities and the implications for regional stability.

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF has resulted in substantial loss of life and displacement. As of now, the war has claimed at least 59,000 lives and displaced over 14 million people. The United Nations recognizes Sudan as experiencing the worst humanitarian crisis globally, with 33.7 million individuals needing assistance. Access to those in need is severely limited, exacerbating the already dire conditions. The UN Human Rights Council-appointed investigators have warned that the RSF is employing tactics similar to those used in El Fasher around El Obeid, where its forces have encircled the city, attacking vital infrastructure and restricting access to essential services.

El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state, is currently under SAF control but has endured "siege-like conditions" for 18 months, according to Volker Türk. The situation could worsen further as attacks on critical infrastructure, such as power stations, have led to blackouts, disrupted water supplies, and hindered hospital operations. In three weeks in June, the UN confirmed 15 drone strikes resulting in at least 45 civilian deaths in El Obeid and surrounding areas. In response, Türk has called for a series of measures to prevent further atrocities and avoid repeating the tragedies of El Fasher, including urgent Security Council action, a ceasefire to facilitate humanitarian aid, and collaboration with the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The lessons learned from El Fasher are crucial in understanding the current dynamics in El Obeid. When the RSF took control of El Fasher after an 18-month siege, they executed thousands of civilians through door-to-door searches, targeted specific identities, conducted aerial drone bombings, and engaged in indiscriminate shooting. Before capturing the city, the RSF systematically cut off access to food, water, medical supplies, and humanitarian assistance, according to the Fact-Finding Mission's February report. Despite repeated warnings from the UN about the risks of atrocities in El Fasher prior to its fall, these warnings went unheeded. Investigators are now raising alarms over El Obeid to urge swift action to prevent further casualties. Experts emphasize that the international community still has an opportunity to prevent further atrocity crimes and ensure that El Obeid does not become the next crime scene.