Umwälzung, 'Niederlage der Negativität und der Lügen': Bolsonaro wird nicht Präsident

Left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured a historic fourth term in office on Sunday, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the second round of Brazil’s presidential elections. With 99.81 percent of votes counted, the electoral court reported that Lula received 51.76 percent of the vote, while his conservative rival captured 48.24 percent. The victory marks a dramatic reversal, as Lula trailed in the first round held on October 4. He will assume his new term on January 5, becoming the oldest person ever to govern the South American nation. The outcome defied expectations from many political analysts who believed the long-time leader’s political career was nearing its end after his initial loss. In the first round, Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, led with 47 percent of the vote compared to Lula’s 45 percent. However, Lula urged his supporters to maintain trust and mobilize for the decisive vote. His campaign focused heavily on voter turnout, arguing that previous high abstention rates had disadvantaged his base. Indeed, the abstention rate dropped from a record 21.08 percent in the first round to 19.21 percent in the runoff. Consequently, the margin flipped significantly; Lula had lost by 2.2 million votes three weeks prior but ultimately won by 4.3 million. Celebrations erupted immediately upon the confirmation of results. In São Paulo, Avenida Paulista transformed into a scene of mass jubilation, with supporters lighting fireworks, singing, and embracing one another. Many could not hold back tears as the victory was declared. Lula celebrated with family and political allies before addressing a crowd of supporters. He thanked his campaign team and Brazilian voters, specifically highlighting young people who took to the streets to defend democracy. Lula characterized the result as a defeat for negativity and lies. Vice-elect Geraldo Alckmin stated that Lula had once again saved Brazilian democracy. In contrast, the mood among Flavio Bolsonaro’s supporters was somber. Outside his home in Brasilia, where he monitored the counting process, backers gathered expecting a victory. As the results were published, many departed visibly disappointed and angry. Bolsonaro’s campaign had expressed doubts about the conduct of the election even before the official declaration. Polls conducted by Datafolha and Quaest on Saturday had predicted a narrow win for Bolsonaro, projecting 51 percent of the vote against 49 percent for Lula. The voting day itself was marked by logistical challenges. Voting hours were extended by two hours at some polling stations due to issues with public transport in certain cities and severe weather conditions. Both campaigns requested the extension. Judge Cristiano Zanin of the Supreme Federal Court approved the measure, responding to complaints from both the Workers Party (PT) and the Liberal Party (PL). The decision generated suspicion among some observers because Zanin is considered close to Lula, having defended him during proceedings related to Operation Car Wash. Additionally, instructions regarding whether already-closed polling stations should reopen were reportedly confusing, forcing a temporary halt to the counting process. Lula’s path to this fourth mandate has been defined by significant reversals. Born into rural poverty, he rose from the ranks as a union leader in São Paulo’s industrial suburbs in the late 1970s. After three unsuccessful presidential bids in 1989, 1994, and 1998, he became Brazil’s first elected working-class president in 2002. He served until 2010, stepping down after the constitutional limit of two consecutive terms. His trajectory took a sharp turn in 2017 when he was convicted of corruption and spent more than 18 months in prison. Those convictions were annulled in 2021, clearing the way for his candidacy. He returned to power in January 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election. Jair Bolsonaro, currently incarcerated, faces a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. He had hoped his son would prevail, potentially leading to his release and a role in government. Lula’s victory complicates those prospects. The result also carries weight in the broader Latin American context, where voters in several countries have recently shifted toward the right. By re-electing a left-wing leader, Brazil has taken a divergent path. During the campaign, Lula framed the election as a question of national sovereignty, telling voters they were choosing between a politician who kisses the Brazilian flag and one who kisses the American flag. Lula’s victory was described as historical, noting that no candidate had ever won the second round after losing the first since the restoration of democracy in 1988. Despite the win, governance challenges remain. The Bolsonaro movement secured control of the legislature in the October 4 elections, meaning Lula will face a hostile parliament. Analysts suggest that the narrow nature of his reelection underscores the urgency for generational renewal within the Workers Party. Lula’s administration will focus on social policies and the protection of the Amazon. The incoming president turns 81 on Tuesday.