Nach dem ungarischen Wahldesaster ist Orbáns Fidesz im freien Fall

Hungary's ruling Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, is experiencing severe internal fractures following its poor performance in recent elections. The once-dominant right-wing populist party is now facing a crisis marked by resignations, defections, and speculation about a potential rebirth under new leadership. Three months after parliamentary elections, which saw a significant drop in support for Orbán’s government, signs of disintegration have become evident within Fidesz. The cracks began to show with the unexpected resignation of Gergely Gulyás, the former head of the Fidesz parliamentary faction, just two months into his role. Gulyás had been a loyal ally of Orbán for years, serving most recently as minister of the prime minister’s office. His departure came amid growing tensions within the party, particularly as opposition leader Péter Magyar, once a rising star within Fidesz, has emerged as a formidable challenger to Orbán’s rule. Magyar, who previously worked under Gulyás during his time in the administration, broke away from the party earlier this year to position himself as Orbán’s main rival. At the same time, former Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced he would step down from his parliamentary seat to take up a corporate role with Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD. This move has drawn criticism, given that Szijjártó was instrumental in securing major incentives for BYD to establish a plant in Szeged. His transition has raised questions about whether such positions represent a form of reward for past political service. Speculation about a possible rebranding or even a complete restructuring of Fidesz has grown louder in recent weeks. Former MP Orsolya Ferencz called for individuals committed to “civil and national values” to unite and organize their shared principles. Her comments were widely interpreted as an indirect call for a new political entity to emerge from the remnants of Fidesz. Among those reportedly sympathetic to the idea is Tibor Navracsics, a former minister and ex-European Union commissioner who, despite lacking formal power, holds considerable influence within Fidesz circles. Magyar, who has aligned himself with these calls for change, appears to be capitalizing on the shifting dynamics. His pragmatic approach suggests a desire to reshape Hungary’s political system rather than merely oppose Orbán directly. Recent constitutional amendments passed by Parliament, with support from Magyar’s Tisza faction, include provisions limiting the tenure of parliamentarians to three legislative terms. This measure could significantly impact Fidesz’s future, as many of its current lawmakers will be ineligible to run again by 2030. The implications of this rule are profound. With 52 current Fidesz MPs set to lose their seats by 2030, the party’s traditional power base is beginning to erode. Analysts suggest that the introduction of term limits has diminished the status of these politicians within the broader political landscape, reducing their influence and relevance in the ongoing power struggles. Meanwhile, the Tisza faction, which consists of 141 newly elected members, represents a fresh wave of political entrants. While they may still be eligible to run again in 2034, the long-term viability of their continued presence in politics remains uncertain. Their emergence signals both a generational shift and a potential realignment of political forces within Hungary. Orbán, meanwhile, has remained largely absent from domestic affairs, traveling to the United States to watch the World Cup finals. His absence has not gone unnoticed, with some observers suggesting it reflects a strategic withdrawal from immediate political battles as the party grapples with its evolving identity. As Fidesz continues to face internal divisions and external challenges, the path forward for the party, and for Orbán’s vision of Hungarian governance, remains unclear.