Studie warnt, dass die Welt der künstlichen Intelligenz in zwei Teile geteilt wird und die Wahl zwischen zwei Seiten erzwingen wird

A new study warns that the world of artificial intelligence is splitting into two distinct blocs, forcing nations and companies to choose sides. The report, titled The Great Divide: How the United States and China Are Splitting the World of AI, was released by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). It highlights how the competition over AI has evolved from a technological race among laboratories and startups into a fierce geopolitical struggle. According to BCG, the U.S. and China are building entirely incompatible technological ecosystems, creating a structural fracture in the global technology order. The dynamics appear clear, with the United States maintaining a dominant edge in both talent and financial resources. In contrast, China is accelerating its integration of AI into its economy, aiming to leverage existing technologies to close the gap at minimal cost while pushing for widespread adoption within its productive apparatus. This divergence leaves other countries unable to simultaneously follow both paths, according to the report. Both Washington and Beijing agree that mastering AI is crucial to national power, yet BCG’s analysis reveals a strategy of complete separation. Each bloc is constructing its own technological framework, seeking to minimize reliance on the other. The U.S. relies on financial and intellectual muscle, while China prefers the role of a fast follower, using others' foundations to quickly catch up. Julián Herman, a Managing Director Partner at BCG, explains that AI is no longer just something countries compete for, it is now the means through which they compete. He notes that the U.S. leads in data center capacity, surpassing 50 gigawatts, more than China and the European Union combined. This infrastructure has become a tool of power, compelling other powers to define their positions clearly. At the level of models, the most advanced systems developed by one superpower are not available to customers in the other or face increasing political scrutiny. Cloud computing is dominated by American firms, with minimal participation from foreign providers. At the chip level, a company using NVIDIA's CUDA technology cannot easily solve problems with Huawei's Ascend chips because much of the production code would need modifications to work with Huawei's CANN software. Apple exemplifies this split better than any metric. For major tech companies operating in China, adopting separate platforms has become an existential imperative. This is evident in Apple's partnership with Alibaba for Apple Intelligence in China, while its collaboration with OpenAI is available everywhere else. In the West, massive financial flows are moving the pieces. Since 2024, the U.S. has signed agreements worth over $1.5 trillion involving research labs, chip manufacturers, cloud giants, and investment firms. This network connects all key players in the industry. BCG warns that this same web carries risks. A single financial misstep or supply chain failure could trigger a domino effect throughout the ecosystem. Despite these warnings, the U.S. machinery shows no signs of slowing down. Corporate spending on technological infrastructure in the U.S. exceeded $400 billion in 2025, six times greater than Chinese investment and projected to reach $800 billion in 2026. While the U.S. continues to push the frontier, the implications of this division are becoming increasingly apparent. Nations and corporations must now navigate a landscape where alignment with either the U.S. or China is not merely strategic but essential for survival in the evolving AI-driven world.