Die EZB hat eine Zinsentscheidung getroffen, die auf Risiken für die Wirtschaft hinweist

The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, aligning with market expectations after two consecutive hikes earlier in the year. The governing council maintained the deposit rate at 2.50 percent, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65 percent, and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.90 percent. This pause follows increases implemented in June and September. While the monetary policy decision was anticipated, the meeting was overshadowed by the announcement that President Christine Lagarde intends to resign from her post on February 7, 2027. This departure comes nearly nine months before the expiration of her seven-year mandate, which was set to conclude in late October. Lagarde stated that she feels a need to express opinions beyond the realm of monetary policy and cannot remain neutral at a time when truth is being damaged. Her sudden resignation triggers an intense process for renewing the leadership of the eurozone’s central bank. Despite the personnel shakeup, the ECB emphasized that it remains well-positioned to navigate the current elevated uncertainty. The board expressed confidence that its monetary policy measures will stabilize inflation at the target level in the medium term. The primary driver behind recent price pressures is the surge in energy costs. Inflation in the euro area accelerated to 3.8 percent in September, marking its highest level in three years. This spike was largely attributable to more expensive fuels, including gasoline and diesel, which reached record levels partly due to higher refining margins. Gas prices have also risen recently. Energy prices increased faster than indicated in the baseline scenario projections published in September. Consequently, total inflation is likely to remain significantly above the 2 percent target over the coming quarters. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, stood at 2.5 percent. Although this figure is distant from the ECB’s medium-term goal, it has remained relatively stable in recent months. The governing council noted that wages have not yet shown a significant response to these changes. However, officials warned that the full effects of the energy shock have not yet materialized. A stronger and longer-lasting energy shock, along with indirect and secondary effects, is likely to push inflation higher while dampening economic growth. The cost of living will be higher, and growth will be lower, according to the council’s assessment. Financing conditions have tightened since the previous meeting in September. These stricter conditions are expected to weigh on both inflation and economic activity. The tightening is viewed as a necessary counterbalance to the inflationary pressures generated by energy costs. The ECB expects that once energy prices subside, combined with the impact of higher interest rates, inflation should return to the targeted level. The geopolitical backdrop contributes to the volatility in energy markets. Wars in Iran and Ukraine have further complicated the situation by driving up energy costs. Additionally, there is growing concern regarding French sovereign debt. The risk premium associated with French bonds has reached levels unseen since 2011, adding another layer of tension for the central bank. This fiscal stress in France represents a new element of worry for policymakers who are already managing the inflationary threat. The ECB had raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point in September. At that time, it estimated that inflation would stay above the 2 percent target for a prolonged period due to energy prices. The current decision to hold rates reflects a balance between the need to contain inflation and the desire to avoid stifling economic growth unduly. Markets did not expect a change in rates, and the bank acted in accordance with those expectations. Lagarde’s tenure has been marked by navigating complex global challenges, including the aftermath of the pandemic and subsequent supply chain disruptions. Her decision to leave early has surprised many observers, given that she still had substantial time remaining in her term. The announcement came shortly before the release of the interest rate decision, dominating media coverage and shifting focus away from the technical aspects of the monetary policy update. The next scheduled review of interest rates is planned for mid-December. Until then, the ECB will continue to monitor incoming data on inflation, wage growth, and economic activity. The council reiterated its commitment to price stability, defining it as an inflation rate of 2 percent in the medium term. All decisions are based on a forward-looking view, taking into account all available information. The divergence within the council regarding the pace of future actions remains a topic of discussion among analysts. Some members favor a more aggressive approach to combat inflation, while others prioritize supporting economic resilience. The final statement reflected a consensus on holding rates steady for now, acknowledging the trade-offs involved. The tightening of financing conditions is seen as a tool to help cool demand, thereby easing pressure on prices. Energy prices rose more sharply than forecasted in the base scenario. This deviation suggests that the inflationary impulse may persist longer than initially modeled. The ECB noted that gasoline and diesel prices hit new records in September. The refining margin component played a role in this escalation. As a result, the path back to the 2 percent target may be bumpy. The central bank remains vigilant against second-round effects, such as workers demanding higher wages in response to higher living costs. So far, wage growth has not accelerated dramatically, providing some relief to policymakers. The resignation of Lagarde introduces an element of political transition into the institution. The search for a successor will begin immediately, involving consultations with national governments and the European Parliament. The outcome of this process will determine the direction of the ECB’s leadership in the near future. For now, the institutional framework remains intact, and the bank continues its mandate to ensure price stability in the euro area. The combination of high inflation and slowing growth presents a challenging environment for monetary policy makers. They must act decisively enough to anchor inflation expectations without causing unnecessary harm to the economy. The upcoming December meeting will provide the next opportunity to assess whether the current stance remains appropriate or if adjustments are required.