Aldo Abram: "Seit August wird es sicherlich für mehrere Monate unter 2% liegen"

Economist Aldo Abram predicted that inflation will remain below 2% for several months starting in August, according to a recent interview with Canal E. The latest inflation data for June has drawn renewed attention from financial markets. Abram noted that private measurements already show results very close to those expected by the National Institute of Statistics (INDEC). He stated that his measurement for June was 1.8%, which aligns with the anticipated official figure. This indicator aims to forecast the trend of the national price index ahead of its release. Abram highlighted the significance of the inflation rate in Buenos Aires, noting that it also came in at 1.8%. He emphasized that this local measure holds particular relevance because it reflects the impact of increases in utility and transportation tariffs more directly than the national average. These sectors often experience higher price changes, making the city's data a key barometer for overall economic conditions. Looking forward, Abram estimated that July might see a slight seasonal uptick, though he expects a continued downward trend. He suggested that while July could approach the 2% threshold, it is likely that inflation will fall below that level by August and stay there for several months. This projection comes amid ongoing efforts to stabilize prices and reduce the pace of cost increases. Regarding the country’s risk profile, Abram acknowledged improvements in economic fundamentals but pointed out that investors remain cautious due to Argentina’s history. He noted that although current indicators suggest better performance compared to many regional countries, the market continues to scrutinize past economic missteps. Argentina has faced multiple defaults by the public sector, repeated failures of the central bank, and periods of extreme hyperinflation. Other economists have offered different perspectives. Luis Secco, another economist, commented on the June inflation rate of 1.9%, which fell just below the 2% threshold. He viewed this as a positive sign for the country’s economic program, emphasizing that core inflation remained below the average, indicating a sustained decline in price growth. However, Secco cautioned against drawing definitive conclusions based on limited data, stressing that two or three data points are insufficient to establish a clear trend. He also warned about potential external factors, particularly the impact of rising fuel prices. While the government controls domestic oil production through YPF, Secco questioned whether it would be able to significantly lower fuel costs. Additionally, he highlighted concerns over service prices continuing to rise faster than goods, affecting household budgets. Services, he explained, are essential and unavoidable, making them a persistent challenge for consumers. Despite the optimism surrounding the recent inflation figures, both Abram and Secco urged caution. Abram stressed the need for patience as trends take time to solidify, while Secco recommended monitoring developments in July before making long-term projections. Some analysts have even speculated that July might show a small increase, though such a move would not necessarily signal a reversal of the broader downward trend. The debate over inflation underscores the complex interplay between internal economic policies and external pressures. As the country navigates these challenges, the focus remains on maintaining stability and ensuring that price reductions continue to benefit households. With further data coming in, the outlook for Argentina’s economy will depend on how well it manages both domestic and international variables.